After the BJP failed to repeat its steller performance in Haryana and Maharashtra, now its more important for the Raghubar Das Government to retain power in Jharkhand. Issues such as abrogation of Article 370 and Ayodhya verdict did not find much resonance in assembly elections in these two states, it is therefore unlikely that the two landmark verdicts will impact the outcome of Jharkhand assembly election results. Out of 81 assembly seats, election have been completed in 65 constituencies in four phases between November 30 and December 16. The fate of former CM and JMM founder Hemant Soren is to be decided in these elections. Counting of votes is scheduled for December 23. Dumka, Barhait, Jama, Pakur, Shikaripara are among few key seats where the results are going to be interesting.
Issues
The ongoing economic slowdown, caste arithmetic, unemployment and alliance politics are few challenges for BJP and can act as roadblocks in its quest for power in the State. Jharkhand is one among the poorest states in India and the current economic slowdown has hit the state harder than the rest of the country. When BJP came to power in 2014, it promised to create jobs in Jharkhand by attracting more investment in the State but this hasn’t happened till date. Conflict over Forest Rights Act, loopholes in the implementation of several welfare schemes has added to the agony of common people in the State.
Caste factor
Caste factor plays an important role in Indian politics, and the same goes with Jharkhand politics. Of the State’s 81-assembly seats, 28 are reserved for ST’s. Political victory in Jharkhand hinges on support from ST voters. In the previous state assembly elections, the BJP and its ally AJSU secured 30% of the ST vote and 13 ST constituencies. While ST constitute 30% of the state population, OBC’s account for 35% as per National Family Health Survey report.
With a non-tribal chief minister, Raghubar Das, the BJP has succeeded in securing support from the Other Backward Classes, the one to which Das belongs. The BJP’s target to win 65 of the 81 seats seems a difficult task after its ally AJSU decided to contest 2019 assembly polls on their own. The two parties have never contested separately since the formation of Jharkhand in 2000. With all this arithematic, Modi-Shah certaily do not want a repetation of what happened in Maharashtra and Haryana. BJP, no doubt is facing a tough fight in Jharkhand and at stake is party’s ambition to dominate upper house of the parliament.
CAA and Jharkhand elections
The CAA has likely impacted the fifteenth assembly constituencies that voted in the fourth phase of elections on December 16. The Bill has consolidated Hindu voters in the State and thus BJP at no loss, if we go by the timing of the Citizenship Amendment Act. Come December 23, and the outcome of the Jharkhand assembly elections will tell us whether the saffron party has played well on Citizenship Amendment Bill or not.